EUR/USD remains in the red despite trade optimism and Trump’s bearish comments on USD

• EUR/USD offered near 50-day MA in Asia, having faced rejection near 61.8% Fib retracement hurdle last week.  
• Trump said a strong dollar hurting US competitiveness.  
• The US-China trade deal may embolden the Fed to hike rates.  

EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1366, having clocked highs near the 50-day moving average (MA) of 1.1385 in Asia.  

Technically speaking, pair’s repeated failure to beat the resistance at 1.1407 (61.8% Fib R of 1.1514/1.1234), as seen last week, could entice sellers.  

Wall Street Journal reported in early Asia that the US and China are closing on a trade deal. The risk assets responded positively to that news with China’s Shanghai Composite index rising to the highest level since June 2018.  

So far, however, the EUR hasn’t picked up a bid and could be offered in Europe despite potential risk-on in equities as any normalization of ties between the US and China will likely pave way for more Fed rate hikes.  

Also, President Donald Trump said that he wants a dollar that’s great for the American economy and not a dollar that is so strong that it is prohibitive for us to deal with other nations.

Trump’s bearish take on the USD, however, seems to have gone unnoticed, leaving EUR/USD at the mercy of the 10-year yield differential, which is currently seen at 258 basis points – the highest level since Feb. 18.  

The spread could continue to rise in the EUR-negative manner as easing trade tensions may reinvite Fed rate hikes, as noted earlier.  

Technical Levels