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EUR/USD has surged higher to 1.1950/92 – the 38.2% retracement of the Q1 fall, mid-March highs and 55-day average and Credit Suisse’s bias remains to look for the rebound to ideally end here.  

Resistance at 1.1990/92 ideally caps with support seen at 1.1928/23

“EUR/USD has surged higher for a test of an important resistance starting at the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2021 fall at 1.1948/50 and stretching up to the mid -March highs at 1.1990/92, with the 55-day average also seen here at 1.1974. Despite the strength of the recovery we continue to look for this to ideally cap and for the risk to eventually turn lower again.”  

“Support is seen at 1.1928/23 initially, below which can see a move back to 1.1883, with a break below 1.1871/60 needed to see a small top complete, for a fall back to 1.1795 initially.”

“A close above 1.1992/97 though would instead suggest we have seen a more important low established near the 1.1695 key support, clearing the way for further strength to resistance at 1.2022/27 next and then more importantly at the March high and 61.88% retracement of the 2021 fall.”