Search ForexCrunch
  • EUR/USD has faced rejection at the key moving average hurdle.  
  • A below-forecast German consumer confidence will likely hurt the EUR.  
  • The US-China trade tensions linger with Washington currently not ready for a trade deal.

EUR/USD is feeling the pull of gravity ahead of key German data releases.  

The shared currency failed to cut through the 4-hour chart 200-candle moving average (MA) resistance of 1.1214 on Monday and is now trading on the defensive at 1.1182.  

The GfK’s Consumer Confidence index for June – a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity – is forecasted to remain unchanged at 10.4. The data is scheduled for release at 06:00 GMT today.

An above-forecast reading could bode well for the common currency, helping it capitalize on the short-term bullish reversal confirmed on Friday.  

A big miss on expectations, however, would accentuate concerns of deeper slowdown in the Eurozone’s biggest economy and would send the EUR lower. The short-term bullish outlook would be invalidated if the spot closes today below Friday’s low of 1.1172.

A bearish close could happen if the European and US equities drop on trade tensions. The US President Trump on Monday said that Washington is not ready for a trade deal with China.

Apart from the German GfK’s Consumer Confidence number, the pair may also take cues from the German import price index, Eurozone money supply figures and the Eurozone’s consumer, economic and industrial confidence indices.  

Pivot levels