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FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD could grind lower to the 1.1910 area in the next weeks.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘conditions remain oversold and the risk of EUR breaking the major support at 1.2000 is not high’. Our view was incorrect as EUR cracked 1.2000 and plunged to 1.1956. The sharp and rapid decline appears to be overdone but further EUR weakness is not ruled out. However, the next major support at 1.1910 is likely out of reach for now (there is a minor support at 1.1935). Resistance is at 1.2000 followed by 1.2020.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected EUR to weaken since last week. In our latest update from Wednesday (03 Feb, spot at 1.2040), we noted that ‘as long as strong resistance at 1.2105 is not breached; a break of 1.2000 would not be surprising and would open up the way for EUR to move lower to 1.1965’. EUR cracked 1.2000 yesterday (04 Feb) and plunged to 1.1956. Momentum remains strong and further EUR weakness towards the next major support at 1.1910 seems likely. All in, the current weak phase in EUR is deemed intact as long as EUR does not move above 1.2055 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.2105).”