The pair stays neutral although it could slip back to the 1.1500 area in the short-term horizon, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group.
Key Quotes
24-hour view: “We expected a lower EUR yesterday but the ease of which the strong 1.1620 support was taken out came as a surprise. While the rapid decline appears to be running ahead of itself, a dip below last month’s 1.1572 low seems likely but at this stage, the next support at 1.1525 is likely out of reach, at least for today (minor support is at 1.1550). Resistance is at 1.1615 but only a break above 1.1640 would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized”.
Next 1-3 weeks: “The relatively large decline over the past couple of days came as a surprise. While we continue to maintain a neutral stance, the risk has shifted to the downside and the major 1.1500/10 support zone is likely to be retested (note that EUR touched 1.1506 in May and 1.1507 in June). At this stage, the prospect for a sustained break below this major support zone is not high but unless EUR can move and stay above the ‘key resistance’ at 1.1680, the current downward pressure is expected to increase over the next 1 to 2 weeks”.
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