- Positioning data is overstretched and bets are being laid for a short term top in EUR/USD.
- Various fundamentals could come into play to start driving in demand for greenbacks again.
EUR/USD is trading at 1.1763 between a range of 1.1695 and 1.1796, pressured as market positioning hits extremes and the US dollar starts to show signs of stabilisation.
The euro has been on the bid during the worth month in a decade for the greenback.
For positing data last week, despite the crowded trade against the US, it did not prevent bearish bets increasing further, hammering the dollar down into negative territory for the seventh consecutive week.
A series of factors have led to the downfall in the dollar, described here:
- DXY: Dollar liquidity plentiful thanks to the Fed, markets increasingly bearish on US outlook
However, the sell-off seems overdone in light of market positioning and even the escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and China accompanied by the rising risk of a second wave in Europe and Asia.
Net long EUR positions rose to a record high of 157.56k as the financial package worth EUR 1.82trl approved by EU leaders was cheered by the investment area, leading to the EUR/USD rally to 1.19 from 1.12 at the beginning of July.
However, the all-time high bullish bets on the euro could prove a classic contrarian indicator.
EUR/USD levels
If this is a short-term top at 1.19, then we can expect to see a proper correction lower to unfold over the coming weeks.
As analysts at Commerzbank have pointed out, EUR/USD last week sailed tough resistance at 1.1785/1.1825, this was a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a 12-year resistance line and the September 2018 high.
HOWEVER the market has not CLOSED above here on a weekly basis and we may see some near term consolidation ahead of a move to 1.2635/66, the 200 month ma Initial support lies 1.1625/38 (a double Fibo) ahead of the March high at 1.1495. Ideally dips lower will be contained by the 2 month uptrend at 1.1441.
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