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  • Department of Labor reported positive unemployment claims for the previous week, adding pressure on EUR/USD prices.
  • EUR/USD dropped for four consecutive sessions despite stronger German PPI figures.
  • Forex trading market participants may look to sell trades below the $ 1.1655 level today. 

The EUR/USD closed at $1.1674 after reaching a high of $1.1717 and a low of $1.1666. The EUR/USD dropped for four consecutive sessions despite stronger German PPI m/m figures and reached its lowest since November 2020. The currency pair EUR/USD dropped to its nine-month lowest level amid the strength of the US dollar. The rising risk-off market sentiment is due to concerns about the coronavirus’s surge in the Delta variant.


If you are interested in trading EUR/USD with forex robots, check out our guide.

A Stronger Dollar Continues to Push EUR/USD Lower

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s value against the basket of six major currencies, surged to its 9-month highest level on Thursday and reached 93.58. The greenback’s strength was driven by the latest release of the FOMC meeting minutes from July. That revealed many officials were inclined towards reducing the support provided to the economy against the coronavirus pandemic. 

Economic Events Boost Dollar Demand, Dragging EURUSD Lower

The declining number of jobless claims from Americans during last week added further strength to the greenback. It depicted progress toward achieving employment goals set by the Federal Reserve.

The rising strength of the US dollar then added pressure on the riskier currency pair EUR/USD. That also dropped to its 9-month lowest level on Thursday. The loss in the currency pair was extended because of the prevailing risk-off market sentiment driven by the rising concerns about the Delta variant of the coronavirus.

On the data front, at 13:00 GMT, the current account from June showed a surplus of 21.8B against the forecasted 12.3B, supporting the single currency Euro and limiting the loss in the EUR/USD pair.

From the US side, at 17:30 GMT, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia‘s Philly Manufacturing for August dropped to 19.4 against the anticipated 23.2. The Jobless Claims from the Department of Labor fell to 348K against an estimated 362K and supported the US dollar. That added further loss to EUR/USD. The CB Leading Index in July rose to 0.9% against an estimated 0.7% and supported the US dollar. That added additional downside momentum to EUR/USD. The Mortgage Delinquencies remained flat with projections of 5.47%.

Coronavirus outbreak weights on single currency Euro

The rising number of coronavirus cases throughout the globe is due to the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus. Italy reported about 55 deaths related to coronavirus on Thursday, while the reported cases increased to 7260 on a single day. 

Italy has registered about 128,634 deaths so far since the outbreak emerged in February last year. It was the second-highest toll in Europe after Britain and the eighth highest in the world. The total number of cases reported in the country reached 4.46 million. The Coronavirus situation in Europe kept weighing on the single currency and added pressure to the EUR/USD pair.

Optimistic German PPI m/m failed to support EUR/USD

The Destatis recently released the Geman PPI data, which soared from 1.3% to 1.9%. The positive data should have extended some support to the EUR/USD. However, it doesn’t seem to help a lot here. 

German PPI m/m
EUR/USD 4-Hour Timeframe

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1655 1.1706

1.1635 1.1737

1.1604 1.1758

Pivot Point: 1.1686


EUR/USD – Descending Triangle Breakout Despite Stronger German PPI m/m

The EUR/USD price forecast remains bearish as the pair has already violated the descending triangle pattern. The triangle’s triple bottom area was providing support at 1.1708 level. The closing of candles below this area supports strong odds of a selling trend continuation.

In the 4-hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has gained support at the 1.1668 level. A double bottom pattern extends that support level and the breakout below can extend selling until 1.1630 support.

On the bullish side, the next resistance prevails at the 1.1708 level. At the same time, a continuation of an uptrend could extend its price towards 1.1740 and 1.1800 resistance levels.

The 50 day EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Red Line) holds at 1.1700. On the other hand, the oscillator indicator Stochastic RSI is still in a buying zone. Therefore, we should wait for the RSI to cross below the 50 level before entering any sell trade. Therefore, Forex trading market participants may look to sell trades below the $ 1.1655 level today. The initial targets are likely to be at $ 1.1630 and $ 1.601 levels. Alternatively, buy trades can be taken above the $ 1.1708 level to target $ 1.1745 and 1.1765. All the best!


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