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  • University of Michigan has recently released the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment that’s dampening the demand for greenback.
  • EUR/USD has soared dramatically to test and complete 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.18005. 
  • Forex trading market participants may look for sell trades below the $ 1.1800 level.

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a solid bullish bias at the 1.1801 level, having crossed below 50 days EMA (exponential moving average – red line). The EMA extended resistance at the 1.1735 level; however, there’s a fundamental reason behind EUR/USD’s sudden bullish trend. Worse than expected, US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment data has driven a bearish trend in the dollar, pushing EUR/USD pair higher.

 

If you are interested in trading EUR/USD with forex robots, check out our guide.

Better than Expected German WPI & Final CPI Underpin EUR/USD

One of the major reasons behind a bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair can be the optimistic German WPI data. As per the stats released by Destatis, the Wholesale Price Index has soared by 1.1% versus the economist’s forecast of 0.9%. At the same time, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by 0.1% over one month, as in June. The services prices stimulated at +0.7% after +0.1% and energy prices (+2.2% following +1.1%).

The food costs bounced (+0.1% following ?0.7%). The prices of manufactured goods declined (?1.8% following +0.5%) and tobacco prices to a lesser degree (?0.2% following stability in June). 

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices (CPI) increased by 0.4% in July, after +0.2% in June. Year on year, consumer prices have tempered down to 1.2%, after +1.5% in June.

The optimistic economic data from the Eurozone appear to be supporting the Euro to gather some bullish power. Eurostat announced on Friday that the Eurozone published a trade surplus of €12.4 billion (seasonally adjusted), versus the market expectation of €9.3 billion.

On the flip side, the greenback has difficulty recovering demand, leaving EUR/USD in the bullish territory.

EUR/USD on a Bullish Run Amid Weaker UoM Consumer Sentiment

The University of Michigan has recently released the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment that’s dampening the demand for the greenback. As per the UoM report, the consumer confidence in the US worsened distinctly in August, with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index sinking to 70.2 in August versus 81.2 in the month of July. 

Additional aspects of the publication reported that the Current Conditions Index dwindled to 77.9 from 84.5, and the Consumer Expectations Index plunged from 79 to 65.2. The UoM consumer sentiment missed the economist forecast with a wide margin, and it’s denting the Fed interest rate hike and tapering sentiments.

US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
EUR/USD 4-Hour Timeframe

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Daily Technical Analysis: 61% Fibonacci Retracement 

During the US trading session, the EUR/USD price forecast is sharply bullish. The direct currency pair EUR/USD has soared dramatically to test and complete 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.18005. 

On the 4 hour chart, the EUR/USD has violated the downward trendline at the 1.1740 level. The pair has formed solid bullish engulfing candles that are supporting bullish sentiment among investors. Therefore, the pair is skyrocketing towards 1.1800, violating the 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50% retracements levels on the way. 

The 50 days EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Red Line) holds at 1.1740 while the oscillator indicator Stochastic RSI has entered the overbought zone. Thus, failure to break above 1.1800 (61.8% Fibo level) can trigger profit-taking among investors. 

Therefore, Forex trading market participants may look for sell trades below the $ 1.1800 level today. The initial targets are likely to be $ 1.1758 and $ 1.1706 levels. 

Alternatively, buy trades can be taken above the $ 1.1800 level to target $ 1.1856. All the best!

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