- The EUR/USD pair is trading sideways, between a narrow trading range of 1.1775 – 1.1740 level as investors await the Jackson Hole Symposium.
- The German GfK Consumer Climate dropped to-1.2 against the forecasted-0.5 and weighed on the single currency Euro.
- Forex trading market participants may look for a sell-stop below 1.1720 with an initial target of $1.1694 and $1.1660 levels.
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair is trading sideways, between a narrow trading range of 1.1775 – 1.1740, as investors await the Jackson Hole Symposium. The day before, the EUR/USD closed at $1.1750 after placing a high of $1.1781 and a low of $1.1746.
If you are interested in trading EUR/USD with forex robots, check out our guide.
The European Central Bank Revises the Interest Rate Guidance
After rising for 4-consecutive sessions, the EUR/USD currency pair reversed its course. The EUR/USD pair dropped amid the comeback of the US dollar. While the release of ECB monetary policy meeting accounts from July. During last month’s monetary policy meeting, the European Central Bank revised the proposed interest rate guidance on several key points to ease an extensive range of concerns and objections.
The ECB altered its primary policy target and made it more tolerant of above-target inflation. According to the ECB, interest rates will not be raised until inflation reaches its 2% target ahead of its projection horizon. Moreover, the rates would only be extended if there was enough evidence to assure that the pace of price growth would persist durably.
The minutes also suggested that raising interest rates will require headline inflation to head towards the 2% target and underlying inflation. Minutes revealed that most policymakers backed the revised guidance, but a few members did not favor it.
The policymakers are widely expected to discuss the beginning of the scaling back of pandemic-era emergency bond purchases. Euro, the single currency, came under pressure after the release of July’s policy meeting minutes. Thus, it added to a further decline in EUR/USD yesterday.
Quick Economic Data Review
On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German GfK Consumer Climate dropped to-1.2 against the forecasted-0.5 and weighed on the single currency Euro. At 13:00 GMT, the M3 Money Supply for the year remained flat at the anticipated 7.6%.
The private loans for the year surged in July to 4,2% against the predicted 4.1% and supported the Euro and prevented the further loss in the EUR/USD currency pair. From the US side, at 17:30 GMT, the Prelim GDP for the quarter declined to 6.6% against the estimated 6.7% and weighed on the US dollar, which capped further losses in the EUR/USD pair.
The Unemployment Claims from last week rose to 353K against the anticipated 345K and weighed on the US dollar, which limited the bearish momentum in EUR/USD. The Prelim GDP Price Index for the quarter remained flat with projections of 6.1%.
The US dollar was strong across the board despite the dismal macroeconomic data released for the day. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s value against the basket of six major currencies, rose on Thursday after declining continuously for four sessions. It reached a 93.08 level, which ultimately added more losses to the EUR/USD currency pair.
Jackson Hole Conference By Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
The market attention has been primarily focused on the annual Jackson Hole conference arranged by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City this whole week. Investors expect that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could provide hints about his stance on reducing asset purchases in his speech on Friday.
The St. Louis Federal Reserve President, James Bullard, called for the US central bank to start paring bond purchases soon. Eventually, the US Treasury Yields on the benchmark 10-year note also rose to their 2-week highest level. This added further pressure on the currency pair EUR/USD and turned it red for the day.
EUR/USD Price Forecast – Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.1737 1.1772
1.1724 1.1794
1.1702 1.1807
Pivot Point: 1.1759
EUR/USD Price Forecast – Daily Technical Analysis: Jackson Hole Symposium Ahead
During the US trading session, the EUR/USD is trading sideways between a narrow trading range of 1.1775 – 1.1741 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of the 1.1775 level could trigger a bullish trend and lead the EUR/USD pair towards the next resistance level of 1.1807.
On the bearish side, the breakout of the 1.1740 support level could lead the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.1694 level. The thin trading volume is keeping the pair in a narrow range ahead of the Jackson Hole conference.
The 50 days EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Red Line) is held at 1.1735, and it supports a bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair. On the flip side, the oscillator indicator Stochastic RSI holds in a selling zone, demonstrating a selling trend. Thus, it’s hard to trade in such situations.
Therefore, Forex trading market participants may look for sell-stop below 1.1720 with an initial target of $1.1694 and $1.1660 levels. Alternatively, buy trades can be taken above the $ 1.1775 level to target $ 1.1807. All the best!
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