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What is the outlook towards EUR/USD in the medium to long term?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

Credit Agricole CIB Research  maintains a positive bias on EUR/USD in the medium to long term.

We maintain our constructive view on EUR/USD for 2021 when we expect the pair to revisit 1.2000 and head higher still.  The view is based on the expectation that the Fed will maintain its ultra-dovish policy stance and hurt the USD’s rate advantage while the ECB will continue to struggle to contain the EUR especially if negative rates remain off the table,” CACIB notes.

Our forecasts are further based on the assumption that Joe Biden wins the November presidential election. That said, a surprise Donald Trump victory could usher in a period of EUR/USD underperformance in Q420 towards 1.1500, on the back of fears about potential trade tariffs. We doubt that it would change the upward trajectory of the pair, however,” CACIB adds.

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