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  • The pair stays positive in the mid-1.1300s.
  • DXY gathers some traction and rebounds to 96.50.
  • NAHB index came in at 62 in March.

After moving to session tops in the 1.1360 region, EUR/USD faced some selling pressure and has now receded to the 1.1345/40 band.

EUR/USD faltered around the 55-day SMA

The pair keeps the move north unabated so far today, although it faced a strong hurdle in the 1.1360 region earlier in the day, where coincide the 55-day and 100-day SMAs.

No news from the US-China trade front and just a few headlines from the Brexit negotiations left the risk-appetite trends within the recent range, while market participants commenced to shift their focus to the upcoming FOMC meeting (Wednesday). In this regard, consensus among traders keeps pointing to a dovish message from the Committee, with speculations now signalling one rate hike this year vs. previous views of two rate hikes.

In the data space, the US NAHB index came in below forecasts at 62 for the month of March ahead of tomorrow’s ZEW survey in Germany and the broader Euroland.

What to look for around EUR

Market participants appear to have already adjusted to the recent and renewed dovish stance from the ECB, focusing instead on the broad risk-appetite trends as the main driver of the price action in the near term. In the longer run, the performance of the economy in the region should remain in centre stage along with prospects of re-assessment of the ECB’s monetary policy. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that investors keep pricing in the first rate hike by the central bank at some point in H2 2019. On the political front, headwinds are expected to emerge in light of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections, where the focus of attention will be on the potential increase of the populist option among voters.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.16% at 1.1342 facing the next hurdle at 1.1365 (55-day SMA) seconded by 1.1419 (high Feb.14) and finally 1.1484 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.1286 (10-day SMA) would target 1.1176 (2019 low Mar.7) en route to 1.1118 (monthly low Jun.20 2017).