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FX Strategists at UOB Group still see EUR/USD side-lined between 1.1170 and 1.1380 for the next weeks.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “Our expectation for EUR to ‘drift lower towards 1.1210’ last Friday did not quite materialize as it recovered after touching 1.1217. The underlying tone has improved somewhat and this could lead to EUR edging higher. That said, any advance is viewed as part of a higher trading range of 1.1225/1.1275. In other words, a sustained rise above 1.1275 is not expected.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “Looking back, we called for a short-term top on 12 Jun when EUR was trading at 1.1280 and expected EUR to trade between 1.1170 and 1.1380. When EUR moved towards 1.1170, we highlighted that EUR ‘has to close below 1.1170 before a more sustained weakness can be expected’. The rapid manner by which EUR rebounded from 1.1183 yesterday (01 Jul) suggests that EUR is not ready to move below 1.1170. To look at it another way, EUR could continue to trade between 1.1170 and 1.1380 for a while more.”