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  • The Nonfarm payroll dropped to 235K versus an estimated 720K. While the Average Hourly Earnings from August grew to 0.6% versus the anticipated 0.3%. 
  • On Monday, the EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias below the 1.1910 resistance level.
  • The Forex trading market participants may look for a buy trade above 1.1861 with an initial target of $1.1888 and $1.1931 levels.

On Monday, the EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias below the 1.1910 resistance level. The day before, the EUR/USD currency pair was closed at $1.1882 after placing a high of $1.1910 and a low of $1.1866. The EUR/USD continued its bullish streak for the 6th consecutive session amid weaker than expected US nonfarm payroll data. 

 

If you are interested in trading EUR/USD with forex robots, check out our guide.

Weaker than expected US nonfarm payroll data underpins EUR/USD

The declining price of the US dollar and the improved risk-on market sentiment continue to dominate the market. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was lower on Friday and dropped to its one-month lowest level at 91.95 amid the dismal jobs data from the country.

The US nonfarm payroll data, which was highly anticipated, turned the tables on the tapering timeline. It fell to the seven-month lowest level in August, at 235,000 against the forecasted 720,000. Moreover, the jobs figure came in three times less than predicted and weighed heavily on the US dollar, extending further gains to the EUR/USD.

The ECB might start tapering sooner than expected.

The currency pair EUR/USD was already high onboard. The prospects of more stable inflation and a reduction in stimulus support from the European Central Bank kept the EUR/USD supported. The hopes that the ECB might start tapering sooner than expected kept the single currency euro higher against its rivals.

At the same time, the weaker US dollar pushed EUR/USD on the upside towards $1.1910, which is the highest level since 30th July. The currency pair EUR/USD could not remain at the multi-month highest level and reversed its course during European trading hours after the release of European economic data.

The PMI data for the service sector of the economy showed negative growth in activities. The high spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus weighed heavily on the single currency Euro, which lost most of EUR/USD’s earlier gains for the day.

Quick Economic Events Review

On the data front, at 11:45 GMT, the French Gov. Budget Balance from July showed a deficit of-166.6B compared to the previous-131.3B. At 12:15 GMT, the Spanish Services PMI declined in August to 60.1 against the predicted 61.4, weighing on the Euro.

The Italian Services PMI for August was also reduced to 58.0 against the projected 58.4, keeping the EUR/USD under pressure. At 12:50 GMT, the French Final Services PMI remained flat with expectations of 56.3.

At 12:55 GMT, the German Final Services PMI was also reduced to 60.8 against the projected 61.5. It also weighed on the Euro and limited further upside momentum in EUR/USD. At 13:00 GMT, the Final Services PMI from the whole bloc in August dropped to 59.0 against the predicted 59.7 and weighed on the Euro. Lastly, the retail sales from Europe were reduced by-2.3% against the forecasted 0.0%, and it further capped upward movement in EUR/USD.

US Nonfarm Payroll Updates

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payroll, average hourly earnings m/m, and unemployment rate data during the New York session. The Average Hourly Earnings from August grew by 0.6% versus the anticipated 0.3%. It supported the greenback and limited further gains in EUR/USD.

Moreover, the nonfarm payroll dropped to 235K versus an estimated 720K. Thus, the worse than expected data added further gains to EUR/USD. Additionally, the unemployment rate stayed even with the expectation of 5.2%.

weaker than expected US nonfarm payroll data.
EUR/USD 4-Hour Timeframe

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1881 1.1889

1.1876 1.1892

1.1874 1.1897

Pivot Point: 1.1884

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Weaker than expected US nonfarm payroll data 

The EUR/USD is trading bullish above the 1.1861 support level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the violation of the double top pattern is now working as a support for the EUR/USD pair. The closing of candles above the 1.1861 level could drive an additional bullish trend until the 1.1888 resistance level.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at the 1.1872 level as investors are pricing in the weaker than expected US nonfarm payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On the bearish side, the breakout of the 1.1861 support level could lead the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.1845 and 1.1802 levels.

The 50 days EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Red Line) is held at 1.1886. Thus, it’s supporting a selling trend in the EUR/USD pair. On the flip side, the oscillator indicator Stochastic RSI holds in an oversold zone, demonstrating that the sellers are getting exhausted; thus, the bulls may enter the market soon.

The Forex trading market participants may look for a buy trade above 1.1861 with an initial target of $1.1888 and $1.1931 levels. Alternatively, sell trades can be taken below the $1.1860 level to target $ 1.1795. All the best!

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