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EUR/USD has stabilized as expected at the rising 200-day moving average (DMA), currently seen at 1.1826 and analysts at Credit Suisse continue to look for a floor here, for now at least. Big picture though, the risk is seen growing for a break lower to expose the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 uptrend at 1.1695.

Key quotes

“EUR/USD has stabilized for now as expected just ahead of our target of the rising 200-day average, currently seen at 1.1826. With further price resistance not far below from the late November low at 1.1800, we continue to look for a floor in this 1.1823/00 zone, for now at least.”  

“Resistance for a recovery stays seen at 1.1916 initially, with 1.1933/47 still seen as a near-term key. Above here is needed to confirm a near-term floor is indeed in place, clearing the way for a recovery back to 1.1991, not only price resistance but also the 38.2% retracement of the fall from late February and 13-day exponential average, which we would expect to prove a tough initial barrier.”  

“Post a near-term rebound, our bias stays lower for a closing break of 1.1826 to see the risk stay directly bearish with support then seen next 1.1800 ahead of 1.1745 and then more importantly at the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 uptrend at 1.1695, with a fresh floor expected here.”