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EUR/USD has not only completed a base above 1.1881 but also a large bullish “outside week” and economists at Credit Suisse look for this to act as the catalyst for a resumption of the core bull trend for a move back to the 1.2011 high.

Key quotes

“A strong week for EUR/USD has not only seen bullish ‘reversal day’ established but also a bullish ‘outside week’ and a base above the October high at 1.1881 and with the 13 and 55-day moving averages looking close to also completing a bullish cross, we look for this to mark an end to the consolidation phase from September for a resumption of its core bull trend.” 

“We see resistance at 1.1918 initially ahead of 1.1962/66 and then the 1.2011 September high. Whilst this should again be respected, we look for a break in due course for our 1.2145/55 first core upside objective – the ‘neckline’ to the early 2018 top and 78.6% retracement of the 2018/2020 bear trend. Whilst we would expect a fresh phase of consolidation to emerge here, big picture, we continue to look for strength to extend above 1.2500.” 

“Support moves to 1.1851 initially, with 1.1795/71 now ideally holding to keep the immediate risk higher. A break would warn of further sideways ranging and a fall back to 1.1710.”