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The EUR/USD pair has held above its key uptrend from the 2021 lows at 1.2071/51, which maintains an upward bias within the broader range, according to the Credit Suisse analyst team.

Support remains at 1.20571/51 initially and then more importantly at 1.1999/86

“Whilst above the 2021 lows at 1.2071/51, the immediate risk can still lean higher. A break above 1.2152, which has stalled the market this morning, would reinforce the upward bias for strength back to 1.2182/85, then what we expect to be tougher resistance at the 78.6% retracement of the Q1 fall and February high at 1.2212/43, where we will look for a fresh cap. Should strength directly extend, this can expose the top of the broader range and YTD high at 1.2325/1.2350.”  

“Below 1.2071/51 can clear the way for a test of what we see as more important support at 1.1999/86 – the early May low and 38.2% retracement of the March/May rally.”

“Only below 1.1999/86 though would warn of a more important top (and a possible even larger ‘head & shoulders’ top for further weakness to the 200 -day average at 1.195 7 initially, then 1.1943/42.”  

 

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