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EUR/USD strength has stalled as expected at its 200-day average at 1.1889. Whilst further near-term consolidation should be allowed for, a break in due course can expose the 38.2% retracement of the entire Q1 fall at 1.1950, the Credit Suisse analyst team briefs.

The spotlight remains on the key 200-day average at 1.1889, with the risk still seen for a break higher

“EUR/USD strength has stalled as expected for now at the 200-day average at 1.1889 and near-term consolidation around here should still be allowed for.”

“With daily MACD momentum having turned higher though our bias is for this to be followed by a closing break higher in due course. This should then see strength extend further to the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2021 fall at 1.1948/50, potentially even the mid-March highs at 1.1990/92, but with this 1.1950/1.1992 zone expected to prove a much tougher barrier and we look for a more important cap here.”

“Support for a setback from the 200-day average moves to 1.1860 initially, below which can ease the immediate upside bias for a fall back to 1.1823/22, which we look to try and hold. Below 1.1795/87 though is needed suggest a more decisive rejection of the 200-day average has been seen, clearing the way for a move back to 1.1737, then 1.1703/1.1695.”