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EUR/USD holds long-term Fibonacci support at 1.1945. Nonetheless, after a brief recovery towards 1.2085, the pair is expected to fall to 1.1750, per Commerzbank.

Key quotes

“EUR/USD has sold off to support at 1.1945, which is the 23.6% retracement of the move up since March 2020. While this has held the initial test, rallies from here are expected to struggle on moves to the six-week downtrend at 1.2085. This resistance is reinforced by the 55-day ma at 1.2129.” 

“A close below 1.1945 is needed to imply a deeper sell-off to 1.1750 and possibly the 1.1695/02 support, this is the 38.2% retracement and the September and November lows. It would also represent a return to point of break out from the previous 12-year downtrend.”