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Lars Sparresø Merklin from Danske Bank has updated the EUR/USD forecast to 1.15 in one month and to 1.11 in twelve months. 

Key quotes

“We revise our one-month and three-month forecast to 1.15 while lifting our six-month and twelve-month forecast to 1.11. This is a parallel shift upwards of six figures reflecting not only global reflation trends but also a one-off level from changed European tail risks. The key risk for our six-twelve month view will be how the Fed moves in the second half of 2020.”

“Longer-term issues have still to be addressed within core European industries (autos, banks, etc.), Brexit remains unresolved and Italy may enter new debt sustainability discussions by year-end. Further, positive macro surprises in the US may help to stem USD weakness. Lastly, and most importantly, we have yet to see real commitment from the Fed to pursue inflation overshooting.”

 

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