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Economists at Danske Bank now see the EUR/USD range as shifting from 1.18-1.20 to being 1.17-1.19 but stick to their call of 1.23 in six-months time following Powell’s press conference which will likely mean the USD-negative reflation story is set to pause a bit longer.

Key quotes

“Powell’s press conference will likely mean the USD-negative reflation story is set to pause a bit longer. Thus, our one-month forecast of 1.21 is very unlikely to be realised. Instead, we now see the EUR/USD range as shifting from 1.18-1.20 to being 1.17-1.19.” 

“Looking ahead three-to-twelve months, we continue to see an economic recovery which is stronger-than-consensus and a resolution of Brexit – all amid calm in intra-European politics. Adding in continued policy support (especially from China), mean we stick to our call of 1.23 in six-moths time.”