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  • EUR/USD remains within a rangebound theme near 1.1250.
  • Risk appetite trends look mixed and with COVID-19 in centre stage.
  • NY Empire State Index improved to -0.20 in June.

EUR/USD is prolonging the consolidation in the mid-1.1200s as the European trading hours are drawing to a close on Monday.

EUR/USD focused on risk trends

EUR/USD remains under pressure on Monday amidst a mild albeit persistent recovery in the greenback, always sustained by the re-emergence of fears over a second wave of coronavirus contagion.

This idea has been supported further as of late in light of the pick-up in infected cases in the US, while the virus is not giving signs of unremitting in many other places.

In the calendar, the EMU’s trade surplus shrunk to €2.9 billion in April (from €28.2 billion) and Italian consumer prices contracted at a monthly 0.2% during Mayt. In the US data space, the NY Empire State Index came in better-than-expected at -0.20 for the current month, while TIC Flows and the speech by San Francisco Fed M.Daly (2021 voter, centrist) will close the docket later in the NA session.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD has opened the week on a weak fashion on the back of further rebound in the demand for the buck. The constructive view in the euro, however, remains well sustained by the gradual and relentless re-opening of economies in Europe and by the ongoing monetary stimulus announced by the ECB, Germany and the European Commission. On top, the solid performance of the region’s current account is also adding to the attractiveness of the shared currency.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.02% at 1.1253 and faces the next support at 1.1212 (monthly low Jun.12) seconded by 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) and finally 1.1022 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, a break above 1.1422 (weekly/monthly high Jun.10) would target 1.1448 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) en route to 1.1495 (2020 high Mar.9).

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