EUR/USD unchanged near 1.1030 on US docket

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  • EUR/USD stays depressed near 1.1030 so far this week.
  • EMU flash CPI passed largely unnoticed.
  • US Core PCE came in at 1.6% YoY in July.

EUR/USD remains parked in weekly lows around the 1.1030/40 band so far on Friday.

EUR/USD unfazed post-data

Spot keeps the 5-day negative streak well and sound on Friday, trading at shouting distance from 2019 lows in the 1.1030/20 band, always in a context of firm Greenback, somewhat alleviated trade effervescence and dovish ECB-speak.

EUR is facing further selling pressure today after the absence of upside traction in consumer prices in the euro area is expected to remain intact in August, as per earlier advanced inflation figures measured by the CPI.

Across the ocean, US Core PCE (the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge) rose 0.2% MoM and 1.6% on a year to July. In addition, Personal Income expanded 0.1% inter-month and Personal Spending gained 0.6% MoM.

What to look for around EUR

Spot remains on the defensive amidst the better tone in the buck and somewhat renewed optimism on the US-China trade front. Today’s lack of surprise from flash inflation figures in the euro area added to recent disappointing results from German CPI, all reinforcing the case for extra monetary stimulus by the ECB (likely to be delivered next month). This view is also expected to keep occasional bullish attempts well contained for the time being. On the political front, positive developments from Italy have been utterly ignored by investors so far.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.13% at 1.1042 and faces immediate contention at 1.1026 (2019 low Aug.1) seconded by 1.0839 (monthly low May 11 2017) and finally 1.0569 (monthly low Apr.10 2017). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1125 (21-day SMA) would target 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 up move) en route to 1.1196 (55-day SMA).

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