EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: ECB Meeting May Help Bulls Test 1.1000

• Upbeat US employment data pushed the EUR/USD lower.
• Investors expect the Euro Area interest rate to be held at the coming meeting.
• The bulls have returned to the daily chart.

The weekly forecast for the EUR/USD is bullish as the pair closed the week with net gains. Meanwhile, the ECB meeting could push the pair back to 1.1000.

Ups and downs of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD has had quite a busy week, starting with the EU leaders’ summit held on Monday and Tuesday. This meeting saw EU leaders decide on a 90% ban on Russian oil imports. The pair closed higher on Monday. The pair closed lower on Tuesday after data showed that consumer confidence in the US came in higher than investors expected.

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Upbeat manufacturing data in the US released on Wednesday saw the pair close lower as the dollar went up. On Thursday, the pair changed direction on poor private-sector payroll data and closed Friday down on positive NFP data.

Next week’s key events for EUR/USD

Next week will be a big week for the EUR/USD as investors are expecting a lot of important news releases from the Euro Area and the US. Investors will pay attention to inflation and consumer sentiment in the US. The inflation data is crucial as it will shed light on whether the Federal Reserve is succeeding with its current monetary policy.

Investors will be most interested in the ECB interest rate decision and press conference in the Euro Area. With the unexpected rise in inflation for May, the ECB’s reasons for a relaxed monetary policy are no longer persuasive.

The ECB’s task is getting more difficult, especially after the partial ban on Russian oil. These restrictions on energy imports are bound to keep Europe’s prices high, making stagflation a real risk. Investors expect the current rates to hold.

EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls aiming at 1.1000

The daily chart for EUR/USD shows a new bullish trend. The price has broken above the 22-SMA and is trading above it. RSI is also trading above the 50 level, which shows bullish momentum is back. If bulls can maintain this momentum, we could see the price breaking above 1.0800 and pushing towards 1.1000.

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There is also the possibility that bears might come back. This return could see the price break back below the 22-SMA. Until then, the bias for EUR/USD remains bullish.

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