- EUR/USD found some traction after NFP.
- We cannot ignore stronger jobs data despite the move on Friday.
- Markets are neutral today due to the US Independence Day holiday.
The EUR/USD bulls started the movement during the last trading day of the week. However, there are many questions left to this upward movement by the end of the day and the whole week. The market reaction to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report raises significant questions. But, from our point of view, the report on Nonfarm is still more important and could not be overshadowed by unemployment. The rest of the data from America was even less important, and Christine Lagarde’s speech did not provide any new and important information.
It is noteworthy that all these events took place at the same time. As a result, it was at this time that the American currency began to fall, although the report on NFP turned out to be stronger than the forecast. And we believe that this is the illogicality of the movement on Friday. Trading on Friday was quite easy since the very nature of the movement and its relationship with the fundamental background were quite simple and understandable.
Post-NFP assessment
The first signal to sell was formed in the European session, and it was even possible to earn about 10 points on it. However, the price has overcome from top to bottom the extremum level of 1.1837. Since at the beginning of the American session (that is, when all the most important events of Friday occurred), the deal was still open, it had to be closed manually.
Further, all subsequent signals should be ignored since they were formed during or immediately after the publication of statistics in the United States and the speech of Christine Lagarde. Moreover, around the level of 1.1837, as a result, five false signals were formed. Naturally, they were because of the statistics, but nonetheless. In any case, trades should not have been opened near this level. In general, we can also say that the pair was trading quite calmly, as for a very strong macroeconomic background on Friday.
EUR/USD technical analysis: Will Friday bulls retain?
The 4-hour chart on Monday is neutral with no clear bias. But the price is slightly above the 20-period SMA. Volume is too low amid the US Independence Day holiday. Therefore, the technical picture is not clear. However, if bulls sustain a pace above 20-SMA, we expect the next target of 50-SMA at 1.1894 to meet today.
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Saqib Iqbal
