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The outlook  for EURCHF remains to the downside following its loss of upside momentum at the 1.3238 level, its 2011 high. With continued declines seen at the end of the week, risk of further weakness is building up towards its major support at the 1.2422/04 levels, its Dec’2010/Mar’2011 lows.

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The cross is expected to find a breather there on an initial test but it should ultimately be breached and send the cross further lower towards its psycho levels at the 1.2300 level, the 1.2200 level and the 1.2100 level in the days and weeks ahead. This view is supported by its bearish weekly RSI which is pointing lower.  

On the other hand, EURCHF will have to break and hold above the 1.2728 level, its April 18’2011 low to signal any serious strength. This will open up further upside scope towards the 1.2973 level, its April 20’2011 high followed by its April 13’2011 high at 1.3043 with a penetration and negation of that level putting the cross in a position to strengthen further towards its 2011 high at 1.3238. Above here will resume its medium term uptrend towards the 1.3325 level and possibly higher.