Deutsche Bank analysts note that in Europe, the “grand coalition” of conservatives (EPP) and social democrats (S&D) has lost its traditional absolute majority in the next European Parliament.
“Together with the liberals and greens, pro-European groups will still hold a clear majority of two-thirds of the seats in the next EP. But policymaking for them will likely become more complex and require broader cross-party agreements and discipline.”
“With above 30% of seats, Eurosceptic and anti-establishment groups and (nonaligned) parties are estimated to have increased their weight in EU policy making over next five years. But we remain doubtful that these groups will manage to permanently overcome their (many) differences and use their leverage to promote their own coherent policy agenda.”
“Balance in the next EP will also depend on group formation over the next few weeks.”
“The increased fragmentation on the next EP will make the appointment of the next Commission President a potentially lengthy procedure. None of the EP’s “lead candidates” will find it easy to secure support of a majority of the MEPs and the Council might see this as a reason to deviate from the “lead candidate” procedure altogether.”
“A lengthy standoff between Council and Parliament as well as intense negotiations on the top jobs between leaderscould push the appointment of the next Commission beyond October. This would reflect badly on the EU’s prospective ability for constructive policy making and joint decisions and could thus impact market’s confidence and trust in the single currency.”