European Talks Stuck – So is the Euro

Talks in Brussels are taking a very long time. The draft leaked hours ago is had some missing details and is far from being final. An official publication and a press conference is awaited.

EUR/USD has stalled above high support, but still at a distance from critical resistance, awaiting the final decision.

According to a report in Spain’s El Economista, the politicians took a break in order to let their assistants polish the draft. But this polishing is taking a long time, and according to recent reports, the discussions are stuck in the middle of the 14 point draft.

Update: There may be a 15th point, on top of the draft leaked earlier.

The main issues are likely the private sector participation. There is a general mention of this in the draft, but no details. Here is point 5:

5. Greece is in a uniquely grave situation in the Euro area. This is the reason why it requires an exceptional solution. The financial sector has indicated its willingness to support Greece on a voluntary basis through a menu of options (bond exchange, roll-over, and buyback) at lending conditions comparable to public support with credit enhancement.

A related issue that is unclear, is whether Greece will default and how. Current reports talk about a temporary default for a few days. Clarifications are still awaited.

All in all, the draft is quite positive, as it addresses the most important thing: economic growth. The talk about a Marshall Plan for Greece, a non-punitive interest rate and longer maturities are all positive steps. See an analysis of the EU Summit draft.

EUR/USD is at 1.4380 at the time of writing, around the 1.4375 level, which turned into support. The pair is sitting there for a few hours, while talks continue.

The critical line is 1.4450, which is a level of resistance that meets long term downtrend support.