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According to analysts at TD Securities, despite recent divergence between activity and survey data in Europe, they finally expect improvements in the flash PMIs for May.

Key Quotes

“In France, we look for the PMI Services to rise half a point to 51.0 (mkt: 50.8), while the German PMI Manufacturing rises to 46.0 (mkt: 44.8).”

“Shortly after, the German IFO for May is released, and we look for a gain of about half a point in both the Current Assessment (to 104.1; mkt: 103.5) and Expectations (to 95.7; mkt: 95.0) indexes.”

“At lunchtime, the ECB releases minutes from its 10 April meeting. While President Draghi hinted in his press conference that all instruments would be “live” at the upcoming June meeting, the minutes are likely to provide few details on his thinking, while reiterating that TLTRO details are due to be announced in early June. It’s also worth bearing in mind that the meeting was held before the above-trend Q1 GDP data was released, so some of the expected cautious tone will be somewhat out of date. Finally, the ECB’s Nowotny speaks at 5pm.”