Eurozone: Exports remain in decent shape – ING

According to Bert Colijn, senior economist at ING, Eurozone’s exports fell marginally in December by 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis, but the 1.1% quarterly growth  is encouraging.

Key Quotes

“The small decline in nominal exports in December masks a strong performance for the quarter, which is encouraging given the significant downside risks in the economy.”

“In France, real exports contributed positively to GDP growth for the quarter, but for the Eurozone as a whole, the deflated figures will be released later. Throughout 2018, the trade balance has been declining to 15.6 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis which reflects the slightly stronger gains in imports throughout the year.”

“The months ahead remain very uncertain, meaning that exports are likely to dip if downside risks materialise.”

“With all the uncertainty playing out over the coming weeks, today’s trade data show that exports remain in decent shape ahead of a possible storm. Expectations of reviving exports from the car sector as its emissions standard production problems gradually fades away should provide some upside. In the current environment, the question remains whether that can be the dominant factor for exports in the months ahead.