Peter Vanden Houte, chief economist at ING, notes that Eurozone’s industrial production fell by 0.5% month-on month in October after a downwardly revised 0.1% contraction September.
“Year-on-year it fell by 2.2%, compared to a 1.8% decline in September.”
“The main culprit was the 1.6% month-on-month fall in capital goods production, a direct consequence of the hesitant business investments in the wake of global uncertainty. After the disappointing German industrial production data, it was more or less expected that industrial production won’t be looking pretty for the eurozone as a whole. However, this conflicts with the better sentiment data that has been published over the last few months.”
“Bottom line is that looking at real date, the fourth quarter started on a weak footing and that this weakness could linger on a bit longer as the main uncertainties could still take some time to dissipate.”
“A weak quarter will create a negative base effect and that is the reason while, even taking into account some improvement over the course of the year, we only expect 0.7% GDP growth in 2020, clearly below consensus.”