According to analysts at TD Securities, this morning’s Eurozone data was a mixed bag, with Q2 GDP surprising to the downside at 0.3% q/q (mkt 0.4%), actually decelerating from what was supposed to be a temporary Q1 slowdown of 0.4%, but CPI surprised to the upside as TDS had been looking for, with headline at 2.1% y/y (mkt 2.0%), and core a bit stronger than expected at 1.1% y/y (mkt 1.0%).
Key Quotes
“We think that the disappointing GDP print is probably the standout issue here for the ECB, given that they were looking for a rebound in Q2.”
“We don’t get the GDP breakdown until the second print in a couple of weeks, but it’s interesting that not a single economist was forecasting a 0.3% print – there were 31 forecasts for 0.4% and 16 forecasts for 0.5%. So risks were actually skewed to the upside, making it that much more of a surprise.”
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