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Inge Klaver, analyst at Nordea Markets, points out that Eurozone’s headline HICP inflation continued to lose momentum and came out at 0.9% y/y in September, below expectations.

Key Quotes

“Headline inflation continues the downward course of the last few months.  The y/y reading came in at 0.9%. Headline is trending down on the back of lower energy prices, while food prices contributed positively.”

“As expected,  Euro-area core inflation bounced back up to 1.0% y/y  in September. This was mainly driven by an increase in service price inflation, which partly stems from an increase in package holiday prices as suggested by preliminary data from Germany released yesterday.”

We continue to expect underlying inflationary pressures to build, but very gradually.”

The September inflation is unlikely to be a key variable when the ECB makes its next moves.  The economic outlook is requiring more attention than short-term movements in the inflation rate right now. Current weak growth numbers will weaken price pressures in the future and are posing downside risks to the already-well-below-target ECB staff inflation projections.”

“For now, markets are awaiting Lagarde’s first speech as an ECB president. We still expect another easing package in December.”