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TD Securities analyst note that the deluge of euro area data today (10 releases so far, 2 more to come) have in all but one case (Italian inflation) come in at or above expectations, and in every case have repeated or improved on recent trends.

Key Quotes

“Of note, euro area GDP grew 0.4% q/q (mkt: 0.3%), jumping above trend after two quarters of sub-par growth. Strong GDP growth in Spain (0.7% q/q) and a repeat 0.3% q/q showing for France helped drive this number.”

“Inflation releases were more of a mixed bag, as Easter holiday prices and rising energy prices led to higher inflation across the board. However relative to consensus, Italy (1.2% y/y) was on the weak side, France (1.4%) was on consensus, and Spain (1.6%) was stronger.”

“The German number later today is likely to be sharply stronger at 1.9%. Unemployment data showed better-than-expected and continuing improvements at the euro area level (7.7%) and in Italy (10.2%), while the German unemployment rate remained unchanged at a multi-decade low of 4.9%.”