EUR/USD Apr. 1 – Will it Break Out of the

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EUR/USD falls within the range as the week is about to end with a climax – Non-Farm Payrolls. A lot of factors are pushing the pair in both directions. Will we get a breakout out of the frustrating range?  Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  A calm session with Euro/Dollar leaning lower within the 1.4160 – 1.4282 range. Fall below 1.4160 began in the European session.
  • Current range – 1.4030 – 1.4160

EUR USD Chart April 1 Forecast

  • Further levels in both directions: Below 1.4030, 1.3950, 1.3860, 1.3760, 1.37, 1.3610, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
  • Above:    1.4160, 1.4282, 1.4450, 1.4580, 1.48, 1.50.
  • 1.4160 was broken yesterday and switched to being support, but it’s back to being resistance once again. Very strong resistance is only at 1.4282.
  • 1.4030, the important support line is the bottom border of the range and worked perfectly well so far.

Euro/Dollar dropping to lower part of range  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

  • 8:00 European Final Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 57.7 points. Actual  57.5.
  • 9:00 European unemployment rate. Exp. 9.9%.
  • 12:15 US FOMC member Charles Plosser talks.
  • 12:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls. Exp. 195K.
  • 12:30 US Unemployment rate. Exp. 8.9%.
  • 12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Exp. +0.2%.
  • 13:00 US FOMC member William Dudley talks.
  • 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 61.1 points.
  • 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices. Exp. 83.1 points.
  • 14:00 US Construction Spending. Exp. -0.1%.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Non-Farm Payrolls: The king of forex trading is expected to be very similar to last month’s result and in this case, will give modest support to the dollar. But there are 4 other scenario and specific pairs to watch out for. See the NFP Preview for all the details about this event.
  • Hawks dominant in Federal Reserve:  Many Fed official spoke out about stopping QE2 and already two members Charles Plosser and Narayana Kocherlakota talking about rasising the rates. The hawks at the Fed still don’t match Trichet, but the tone is definitely shifting and helping the dollar.
  • Irish Relief:  Following the publication of the stress tests and the announcements for the wide restructuring of the Irish banking system, there is some relief about this country, at least within the ECB. This aids the euro at the moment.
  • Bailout for Portugal – After the Portuguese government collapsed, the recent credit downgrades by Moody’s, Fitch and S&P and the yields that are over the roof, ECB member Evald Nowotny made an open call for a bailout. This isn’t good for the Euro and it will be hard to negotiate when there’s no government in Lisbon.
  • European officials state rate hike is underway:  European central bankers make their message very clear – the rate is going to rise. These talks  sent the Euro higher, and they join the mix of European talks. Trichet hinted about many hikes earlier in the week, but this trend meets hawks on the other side of the Atlantic.

Currensee Community: 53% are long , 49% are short. These are 659 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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