EUR/USD Apr. 22 – Rising on Thin Volume

EUR/USD is drifting higher on thin markets towards the long Easter holiday. Concerns about defaults in Greece, Portugal and Ireland are sidelined in favor of the dollar’s weakness. Will we see an attempt to further improve positions before the holiday?  Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  Quite session sees EUR/USD slowly move from 1.4520 to 1.4580.
• Current range –  1.4580 – 1.47

• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.4580, 1.4520, 1.4450, 1.4375, 1.4282, 1.4160, 1.4030, 1.3950, 1.3860, 1.3760. 1.37, 1.3440.
• Above:   1.47, 1.48, 1.50, 1.5144
• Resistance is only at 1.47, after previous lines have been left behind, but its noticeable that the pair stopped at 1.4650 – this could be a point of struggle later on.
• 1.4580 is only minor support, with 1.4520 being much stronger, switching sides from resistance to support.

Euro/Dollar trading quietly higher  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals – No Events today.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Default for Greece over the weekend?: There are strong rumors in the market regarding a “restructuring” for Greece during the long Easter weekend. Such a precedent could have a horrible snowball effect all over the continent, stronger than the bailouts. Greece not only denies it, but also chases the CitiGroup banker that  allegedly started the rumor, although it’s obvious that the market reacted before his email. Two year yields have passed the 20% mark.
• US data disappoints: Unemployment claims didn’t fall from the 400K line for a second week in a row. Also the Philly Fed Index dropped sharply. This adds extra weight on the US dollar, as the dollar index is at a 30 month low.
• S&P credit warning for the US: It’s quite rare seeing a credit warning for the world’s no. 1 superpower. This shocking event hurt USD/JPY at first, but now it reaches all currencies, with the Swiss franc and the Australian dollar breaking records. Also the Euro and the pound enjoy this weakness.
• Bailout for Portugal – Portuguese yields passed the 9.50% mark at the time of writing. The lack of support from the upcoming Finnish government and without  an operating  government in Lisbon, there’s less hope that this bailout will indeed happen. Perhaps Portugal will also default. Ireland could follow suit.
• Gold and silver continue higher: Gold is already above $1500 and silver above $45. This adds to the dollar’s weakness.