EUR/USD Apr. 4 – Falling in Range as Tensions Mount

EUR/USD drops within the range, and isn’t ready for the big breakout, as tension mounts towards the rate decision. Will it make a move, or continue the almost perfect range trading?  Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  The pair began with a rise above the previous highs of 1.4250, but it fell quickly and didn’t get close to the important 1.4282 line. The fresh fall to 1.42 began in the European session.
• Current range – 1.4160 – 1.4282

• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.4160, 1.4030, 1.3950, 1.3860, 1.3760, 1.37, 1.3610, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
• Above:    1.4282, 1.4450, 1.4580, 1.48, 1.50.
• 1.4160 was broken yesterday and switched to being support, but it’s back to being resistance once again. Very strong resistance is only at 1.4282.
• 1.4030, the important support line is the bottom border of the range and worked perfectly well so far.

Euro/Dollar dropping to lower part of range  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

• 8:30 European  Sentix Investor Confidence. Exp. 16.1 points. Actual 14.2 – disappointment.
• 9:00 European  PPI. Exp. +0.7%.
• 13:30 US FOMC member Charles  Evans talks. Exp. slightly hawkish.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Non-Farm Payrolls Shine: The American labor market is improving  – this gives a boost to the dollar. Gains in jobs + a fall in the unemployment rate were positive signs.
• Dovish Dudley is dominant:  Many Fed official spoke out about stopping QE2 and already two members Charles Plosser and Narayana Kocherlakota talking about rasising the rates. This dollar bullish tone was shattered by William Dudley, a senior member who was very worried about the economy.The hawks at the Fed still don’t match Trichet, but the tone is definitely shifting and helping the dollar.
• Bailout for Portugal – After the Portuguese government collapsed, the recent credit downgrades by Moody’s, Fitch and S&P and the yields that are over the roof, ECB member Evald Nowotny made an open call for a bailout. This isn’t good for the Euro and it will be hard to negotiate when there’s no government in Lisbon. Yields continue to rise.
• Greek Default: Over the weekend, there was a report that the IMF is pushing Greece to “restructure” its debt. This triggered denials, which probably means that we’re getting closer to a default…
• European officials state rate hike is underway:  European central bankers make their message very clear – the rate is going to rise. These talks  sent the Euro higher, and they join the mix of European talks. The rate decision happens on Thursday, and is a key event for the Euro.

Currensee Community: 51% are long , 49% are short. These are 599 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.