EUR/USD Apr. 7 – Falling to Support – Cautious Before

EUR/USD is falling to the all-important support line as the market is cautious before the highly anticipated rate decision. Is it consolidation before a rally, or a sign for an upcoming downfall? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  Steady session saw Euro.Dollar gradually lose ground under 1.43. The move continued in the European session, with EUR/USD now around 1.4282
• Current range –  1.4282 – 1.4450

• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.4282, 1.4160, 1.4030, 1.3950, 1.3860, 1.3760, 1.37, 1.3610, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
• Above:    1.4450, 1.4580, 1.48, 1.50.
• Breakout endangered- after the breakout yesterday, the critical level is tested on the other side now..
• Strong resistance is only at 1.4450.

Euro/Dollar dropping to mid range  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

• 10:00  German Industrial Production. Exp. +0.6%.
• 11:45 European Rate announcement. Exp. +0.25% to 1.25%.
• 12:30 Jean-Claude Trichet’s press conference. Expected to hint about future rate hikes.
• 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 385K.
• 19:00 US  Consumer Credit. Exp. 4.8 billion.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• First rate hike in two years: Tension is very high towards the rate decision. A hike of 0.25% is widely expected. But, there’s also a chance of 0.50%. In case of 0.25%, the key will be the words in the rate decision: “strong vigilance” or “progressive normalization” will be interpreted as a big hint towards another hike soon, and will boost the Euro. Words such as “closely monitoring” or “awaiting developments” will be interpreted as a one time event and will send the Euro down. See the ECB Preview for more.
• Bailout for Portugal – It finally happened – the Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates spoke on TV and announced that the country will ask for aid from the EU. This happens After the  Portuguese government collapsed, the recent credit downgrades by Moody’s, Fitch and S&P and the yields that are over the roof, ECB member  Evald Nowotny made an open call for a bailout, it was just a matter of time.. This was widely anticipated for a long time.
• Fed becoming hawkish:  The FOMC Meeting Minutes have shown that the members of the Federal Reserve tend to end QE2 and even raise rates. This is in line with their  recent speeches.  Two members, Charles Plosser and Narayana Kocherlakota are talking about  raising  the rates. This dollar bullish tone was shattered by William Dudley, a senior member who was very worried about the economy.The hawks at the Fed still don’t match Trichet, but the tone is definitely shifting and helping the dollar. Also Ben Bernanke repeated the same cautious stance. It seems that the hawks are many, but the important people are doves.
• Greece is also in trouble: There are growing denials that Greece will default. More denials mean the situation isn’t good.

Currensee Community: 54% are long , 46% are short. These are 689  open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.