Euro dollar showed some slight movement upwards over the weekend, edging up 0.08%. The last week in March ended with some mixed economic data out of Europe. French Consumer Spending was very strong, but German Retail Sales were down. We’ll start the week with the Eurozone Unemployment Rate, as well as four events in the US, most notably Manufacturing PMI.
Here’s an update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.
- Asian session: The pair consolidated a small recovery above 1.3350. The pair continues to move upwards in the European session.
- Current range: 1.33 to 1.3360.
- Further levels in both directions: Below: 1.3212, 1.3080, 1.30,1.2945, 1.2873 and 1.2760.
- Above: 1.3437, 1.3486, 1.3550 and 1.3615.
- 1.3280 proved to be strong on the upside once again. Yet another breakout attempt failed as the pair retracted.
Euro/Dollar slightly higher after upbeat Chinese Manufacturing data – click on the graph to enlarge.
- 8:00 Euro-zone Final Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 47.7. Actual 47.7 points.
- 9:00 Euro-zone Unemployment Rate. Exp. 10.7%. Actual 10.8%.
- 14:00 US Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.3.
- 14:00 US Construction Spending. Exp. 0.7%.
- 14:00 US Manufacturing Prices. Exp. 63.2.
16:35 FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks
For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast
- China slowdown easing?: The markets cheered the Chinese Manufacturing PMI figures, which climbed to an 11-month high of 53.1, above market forecasts. Further strong data out if China would raise hopes about renewed activity in the Asian giant’s economy.
- European Recession Concerns: The euro strengthened after euro zone finance ministers agreed to strengthen the region’s debt firewall on Friday, but concerns remained over whether the measures would be enough to prevent contagion to other Eurozone economies, notably Spain.
- Spanish worries: Citigroup chief economist said that the chance of a Spanish default is now higher. This joins the persistent rise in Spanish yields. Europe remains very fragile.
- Portugal in trouble: There are heavy doubts if Portugal could return to the markets anytime soon. A second bailout program is certainly on the cards. Even worse, this may not be enough, and the peripheral country might be needing a restructuring similar to Greece.
- Dollar returns to safe haven status: Perhaps the changes in correlations were temporary. The dollar not only returns to a safe haven currency, but it can quickly return to rise when stocks fall and when doubts over the whole world return.
- FOMC Split: The FOMC left policy unchanged, as expected. The statement included an acknowledgement of higher oil prices and a more upbeat wording regarding employment, such as “the unemployment rate has declined notably”. Indeed, fresh jobless claims figures dropped to a four year low. What’s next? Several FOMC members have spoke lately and each one has his own message. Some want to exit soon, while others are still considering QE3. Bernanke leans towards the dovish camp, but the prospects of QE3 still remain low. The markets will look for some direction from a speech by FOMC Member Pianalto later today.