EUR/USD April 4 – Markets await ECB Interest Rate

Euro dollar dropped yesterday (April 3) by 0.22% after the Federal Reserve indicated that it intends to refrain from further monetary easing measures. There are three  key events today –    The interest rate announcement by the ECB,    US Non-Farm Employment Change and US Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Here’s an update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session: The overnight session was active, as EUR/USD dropped to 1.3184, and consolidated at 1.3205. The pair  has weakened slightly  in the European session, falling below the 1.32 line.
• Current range: 1.3185 to 1.3240.  

• Further levels in both directions: Below: 1.3080, 1.30, 1.2945, 1.2873 and 1.2760.
• Above: 1.3212, 1.33, 1.3437, 1.3486, 1.3550 and 1.3615.
• EUR/USD has broken below the 1.3212 line, and the pair is testing 1.3080.

Euro/Dollar is sliding on new worries  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 8:00 Euro-zone Final Services PMI. Exp. 48.7. Actual 49.2.
• 9:00 Euro-zone Retail Sales. Exp. 0.1%.
• 10:00  German Factory Orders. Exp. 1.2%.
• 11:45 Minimum Bid Rate. Exp. 1%.
• 12:00 Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks.
• 12:15 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
• 12:30 ECB Press Conference.
• 14:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
• 14:30 Crude Oil Inventories.
• 15:00 FOMC Member Williams Speaks.

For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• China slowdown easing?: The markets cheered the Chinese Manufacturing PMI figures, which climbed to an 11-month high of 53.1, above market forecasts. Further strong data out if China would raise hopes about renewed activity in the Asian giant’s economy.
• European Recession Concerns: The euro strengthened after euro zone finance ministers agreed to strengthen the region’s debt firewall on Friday, but concerns remained over whether the measures would be enough to prevent contagion to other Euro-zone economies, notably Spain. The ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 1%.
• Spanish worries: Citigroup chief economist said that the chance of a Spanish default is now higher. This joins the persistent rise in Spanish yields. Europe remains very fragile.
• The continuing retreat in European manufacturing. All of the major European economies recorded a PMI reading of below 50 last month. In France, for example, the final reading for March was revised down very sharply from an already very weak preliminary figure. In contrast, in the US,  PMI figures have been comfortably above 50, despite weak global demand.  Will the US Non-Manufacturing PMI release  confirm these  rosy US figures?
• FOMC Dampens Likelihood of Interest Rate Hike:    The FOMC March meeting minutes indicated that the Fed will not launch a third round of quantitative easing unless the rate of growth falters or inflation drops below the central bank’s 2% targeted rate.   The news had a strong effect on the currency markets, as EUR/USD, the  pound and the Australian dollar  were all  down sharply.