Search ForexCrunch

EUR/USD  began the trading week with a firmer tone, moving higher as no indicators are released. The quiet atmosphere certainly helps the common  currency   which managed to edge up in range, but hasn’t made a big move so far. Can the pair break higher when data is released?  

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

  • Asian session: Euro/dollar traded quietly just above 1.33, and moved higher afterwards.

Current range: 1.3280 to 1.3350.

Further levels in both directions: EURUSD:EUR to USD Technical Analysis August 19 2013 for forex trading currencies and sentiment

  • Below: 1.3280, 1.3255, 1.3175, 1.31, 1.3050 and 1.30.
  • Above: 1.3350, 1.3415, 1.3480 and 1.3520.
  • 1.33 now switches to support.
  • 1.3415, the June peak is now strong resistance just above the round 1.34.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • Nothing on the radar today.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Rising chances for Summers to head the Fed:  Media reports in the US continue talking about Larry Summers as the leading candidate to lead the Federal Reserve after Bernanke. An announcement is expected during the autumn.
  • Important data Septaper supportive: Inflation figures came out as expected and pointed to 2% YoY in CPI and 1.7% in core CPI. This should be enough for the Fed. In addition, jobless claims fell to a new multi-year low of 320K. Excellent pro-dollar news. However,  tapering remains a close call for both the Fed and the markets  and the follow up after the Philly number was totally different.
  • Strong core weak periphery: The euro isn’t riding on the good data, and for a reason. Germany and France lead the euro-zone together once again. The news from France is especially encouraging. However, Italy and Spain are still in recession. Can this imbalance continue for a long time?  Here are 4 reasons why the euro-zone is out of recession, but not out of the woods.
  • Some improvement in Greece: While unemployment is horrible (around 64% of youth are without jobs), Greece reported a significant rise in tourism during June. Hopefully also July and August will see positive data.
  • Lower volume: We are already deep into August, and trading volume has fallen. Mondays are more quiet, and things should heat up afterwards.

More technical analysis: