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EUR/USD made a round trip and now returned to the area of the long term uptrend support. Will it close the week above the line? Or will it collapse? Here’s a quick update on fundamentals, technicals and community trends.

eur usd forecast

EUR/USD approaching long term support line – click to enlarge

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  Busy session – EUR/USD traded in a very narrow range in a quiet Asian session, between 1.28 and 1.2840.
  • Current Range is between 1.2797 to 1.2930. Significant support at 1.2797. Explanation below.
  • Further levels: Below, 1.2722, 1.2611, and 1.2460.  Above  1.30, 1.3114 and 1.3267.
  • Medium term: On August 10th, EUR/USD lost a  steep uptrend channel that began on June 29th. It is now consolidating.
  • Long term: Less steep uptrend channel began on June 7th, from the year-to-date low of 1.1876 and continues to support the pair. For today, it stands on 1.2797. A loss of this level will trigger a sharp fall.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • Nothing on the agenda today.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Market is in risk aversive mood. This means that bad US indicators are dollar positive.
  • Yesterday’s worrying US figures temporarily sent the dollar down, but these losses were erased quickly.
  • Moves towards the end of the trading week will cause high volatility, especially around the close of the European session.
  • Currensee Community: 58% are Short, 42% are long. This is a small shift towards shorts- yesterday it was 55:45. These are 905 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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