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The big fall on Friday left EUR/USD at lower ground, and it’s now consolidating. Will manage to recover? Or will it continue downwards? Here’s a quick update on fundamentals, technicals and community trends.

eur usd forecast

EUR/USD below long term support – click to enlarge

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  Quiet opening of the week – EUR/USD traded in a very narrow range in a quiet Asian session, between 1.2690 and 1.2722.
  • Current Range is between 1.2610 to 1.2722.
  • Further levels: Below, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150.  Above  1.2790, 1.2880, 1.2930 and 1.30
  • Long term: On August 20th, EUR/USD lost less steep uptrend channel began on June 7th, from the year-to-date low of 1.1876. This turns into a resistance line now. For today, it stands on 1.2821. A break above this level will trigger a sharp recovery.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00 GMT: French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.3.
  • 7:00 GMT: French Flash Services PMI. Exp. 60.7.
  • 7:30 GMT: German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 60.9.
  • 7:30 GMT: German Flash Services PMI. Exp. 56.3.
  • 8:00 GMT: All-European Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 56.4.
  • 8:00 GMT: All-European Flash Services  PMI. Exp. 55.6.
  • 14:00 GMT: European Consumer Confidence. Exp. -13.
  • 14:30 GMT: US FOMC member Thomas Hoeing (hawk) speaks.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Market is in risk aversive mood. This means that bad US indicators are dollar positive.
  • Friday’s fall signals more falls ahead.
  • PMI figures will cause choppy trading, but are unlikely to have a long term impact.
  • Currensee Community: 55% are Short, 45% are long. These are 866 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Note – This is a new and still experimental section on Forex Crunch. It’s still in development.

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