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EUR/USD managed to weather the fresh wave of bad US figures and to edge up towards the resistance line. Will it recover? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals  and community trends.

eur usd forecast

EUR/USD below long term support, attempting on 1.2722 – click to enlarge

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  An active session saw EUR/USD edge upwards. This intensified when the European session began.
  • Current Range is between 1.2722 to 1.2830, if the break above 1.2722 is confirmed.
  • Further levels: Below, 1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150.  Above  1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30 and 1.3110.
  • Long term: On August 20th, EUR/USD lost less steep uptrend channel began on June 7th, from the year-to-date low of 1.1876. This turns into a resistance line now. For today, it stands on 1.2873. A push upwards will make this line important once again.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 6:00 GMT: German GfK  Consumer Climate  . Exp. 4.1, Actual 4.1, as expected.
  • 8:00 GMT: M3 Money Supply. Exp. +0.4.
  • 12:30 GMT: US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 488K.
  • 14:00 GMT: US Mortgage Delinquencies.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Market is in risk aversive mood. This means that bad US indicators are dollar positive, although devastating figures that we’ve seen in recent days just shocked the markets.
  • The 1.2610 line is critical.
  • US unemployment claims will be closely watched, especially after last week’s figure reached the alarming number of 500K.
  • Currensee Community: 55% are Short, 45% are long, with shortists having the upper hand. This is a small change from yesterday, when the ratio was 56:44. These are 926 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Note – This is a new and still experimental section on Forex Crunch. It’s still in development.

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