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EUR/USD lost ground steadily, fell below the uptrend channel and is approaching an important support. Will it collapse or bounce on this busy day? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals  and community trends.

eur usd forecast aug 31

EUR/USD within new uptrend channel, that began last week. Click to enlarge.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  EUR/USD continued the gradual fall, going under the minor support line of 1.2665.
  • Current Range is between 1.2610 to 1.2665
  • Further levels: Below, 1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150.  Above  1.2722, 1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30 and 1.3110.
  • Uptrend channel lost: EUR/USD trades in an uptrend channel. Uptrend support began from the lows it reached on August 24th through a low on August 25th. Uptrend resistance began on a swing high on August 24th and was formed on August 26th. This is a notable line. EUR/USD lost it.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

  • 7:55: German Unemployment Change. Exp. -19K.
  • 9:00: Unemployment Rate. Exp. 10%.
  • 9:00: CPI Flash Estimate. Exp. 1.6%.
  • 13:00: US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Exp. +3.8%.
  • 13:45: US Chicago PMI. Exp. 57.3.
  • 14:00: US CB Consumer Confidence. Exp. 50.7.
  • 18:00: US FOMC Meeting Minutes.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Market is in risk aversive mood. This means that bad US indicators are dollar positive, although devastating figures that we’ve seen in recent days just shocked the markets.
  • The 1.2610 line is critical on the downside.
  • This is a busy week, with the Non-Farm Payrolls at the end of it. Note the European unemployment rate that is a burden on the Euro, and the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which follow the groundbreaking decision to pump more money into the economy, the statement that enhanced the talks about a double dip recession.
  • Currensee Community: 55% are Short, 45% are long, with shortists having the upper hand. This is a slight change from yesterday’s 57:43 ratio.These are 952 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Note – This is a new and still experimental section on Forex Crunch. It’s still in development.

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