EUR/USD Dec. 14 – Breaking Higher

EUR/USD made a breakout and is now trading at a three week high, after a new wave of optimism boosted the common currency. Will this hold?  Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

Euro/Dollar breaking higher.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  Quiet session under 1.3440, before breaking above this level and reaching 1.3460.
• Current Range between 1.3440 to 1.3576.
• Further levels in both directions: Below   1.3440, 1.334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3114, 1.30, 1.2920, 1.2722, 1.2587.  Above 1.3576,  1.37, 1.3786,  1.3950 and 1.4030.
• 1.3114 is strong lower support
• 1.3440 is important resistance above – if the break is convincing  – it is a bullish sign.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

• 10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Exp. 3.8 points.
• 10:00  European  German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Exp. 10.3 points.
• 10:00 Industrial Production. Exp. +1.4%.
• 13:30 US Retail Sales. Exp. +0.6%. Core Retail Sales, exp. +0.7%.
• 13:30 US PPI. Exp. +0.6%, Core PPI exp. +0.2%.
• 15:00 US Business Inventories. Exp. +0.9%.
• 19:15 US Rate decision. No change expected.

* All times are GMT.

For the major events due later in the week, see the  EUR/USD outlook

EUR/USD Sentiment

• There are hopes for a wide solution to the European debt crisis in the European summit – perhaps a permanent bailout mechanism. This is one of the 5 reasons for the Euro rally.
• On the other hand, Spanish bonds yields stabilized at a high level.. This Euro-crisis barometer is at 5.45%, getting close to the peak at the height of the Irish crisis.
• Irish parliament set to approve bailout plan on Wednesday.
• Contrary to the last FOMC meeting, this one is likely to be dull – causing choppy trading but no long term effect.
• Currensee Community: 50% are long , 50% are short. These are 1291 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment. The community sees more drops in EUR/USD.

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