EUR/USD is on the edge of the lowest levels since 2012, at the double bottom. Will it form a triple bottom at this level and bounce back in anticipation of the ECB? Or is the dollar’s strength just too much? We have top tier data in the US leading towards the Non-Farm Payrolls, and also some interesting news from Europe.
Update: we have a breakdown to a new 2 year low.
More: ECB Preview: A big step towards QE? 3 scenarios
Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.
- Asian session: The pair continued its fall below 1.24 and hit a new low of 1.2361, just above the 2014 lows of 1.2358.
- Current range: 1.2360 to 1.2440.
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2360, 1.2250, 1.2140, 1.2042.
- Above: 1.2440, 1.25, 1.2570, 1.2620 and 1.2660
- 1.2360 is the multi-year low the double bottom.
- 1.25 is strong resistance.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 8:15 Spanish Services PMI. Exp. 56.2 points.
- 8:45 Italian Services PMI. Exp. 50.9 points.
- 9:00 Euro-zone final services PMI. Exp. 51.3 points.
- 10:00 Euro-zone retail sales. Exp. 0.6%.
- 13:15 US ADP NFP. Exp. 223K.
- 13:30 US non-farm productivity (revised). Exp. 2.3%.
- 13:30 US Unit Labor Costs. Exp. 0.3%.
- 14:45 US Markit final services PMI. Exp. 56.3.
- 15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 57.5 points. See how to trade this release with USDJPY.
- 17:30 US FOMC member Charles Plosser talks.He is a hawk.
- 19:00 US Beige Book.
- 19:00 US FOMC member Lael Brainard talks.
* All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Dollar domination: The US dollar made a comeback, amid comments from FOMC member Stanley Fischer that expects wage hikes in the US. In addition, a fresh slide in oil prices (after a comeback) is also consistent with a stronger dollar.
- Non-Farm Payrolls buildup: The first hint towards the NFP was positive: ISM manufacturing PMI beat expectations. Today we get more important data with ADP and the services sector, which is the largest in the US. So far, the weakness in jobless claims does not seem to put a dent in NFP expectations, which stand at 225K.
- Even weaker inflation: The fall in oil prices and a relatively stable euro during October resulted in a very weak German inflation figure of 0.5% in HICP. Also Spanish inflation fell short. This means that EZ CPI, which is currently at the lowest levels in years, could fall even closer to zero. Adding the OPEC decision not to cut and the resulting extension of falling oil prices, at least headline inflation is set to fall even further.
- QE is becoming a question of when: ECB Vice President Constancio talked about making a decision on QE during Q1. He went further to provide justification (well, low inflation for a long time), details (sovereign bond buying will be according to proportional GDP) and timing: Q1. The keys are in Draghi’s hands which already hit the euro hard last Friday. We are now in a quiet period towards the decision on Thursday. Stay tuned for a preview of the ECB.
In our latest podcast, we preview December’s big events, talk about the importance of jobless claims, the crash in oil prices and GOFO going negative:
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