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EUR/USD  is trading in a tight and well defined range between 1.2360 and 1.24, ahead of the monthly release of the US jobs report.  Draghi did not deliver this time and sent a message that the ECB needs more time before it decides on QE, but it seems clear he supports it. So while the pair is off  the pre-ECB lows, it is below the post-ECB highs. How will the pair end the week?

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.

  • Asian session: The pair traded in range after the storm.
  • Current range:  1.2360 to 1.24.

Further levels in both directions:

EURUSD December 5 2014 technical 30 minute chart euro dollar fundamental analysis

  • Below: 1.2360, 1.2280, 1.2250, 1.2140, 1.2042 and 1.1876.
  • Above: 1.24,  1.2440, 1.25, and 1.2570
  • 1.2360  returns to support
  • 1.2440 is serious resistance above 1.24.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00  German Factory Orders. Exp. 0.6%, actual 2.5%.
  • 10:00 Euro-zone revised GDP. Exp. +0.2%.
  • 13:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls. Exp. +231K. See how to trade the NFP with EUR/USD.
  • 13:30 US unemployment rate. Exp. 5.8%.
  • 13:30 US participation rate. Last was 62.8%.
  • 13:30 US average hourly earnings. Exp. +0.2%. Last y/y was 2%.
  • 13:30 US trade balance. Exp. -41.3 billion.
  • 13:45 US FOMC member  Loretta Mester talks.
  • 15:00 US Factory orders. Exp. 0%.
  • 19:45  US FOMC member Stanley Fischer talks.
  • 20:00 US consumer credit. Exp. 16.5 billion.

* All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar  forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Draghi did not deliver: Contrary to his sense of urgency in previous statements,  the ECB president did not announce any imminent QE but rather offered a “wait and see” mode for potential action in “early 2015”. It seems that the Germans pushed back and that there was a lot of disagreement. This triggered a big EUR/USD rally.  However, the ECB did significantly cut its growth and  inflation forecasts that were made before the recent sharp drop in oil prices. In addition, it is working on QE scenarios. Here are 5 reasons why this EUR/USD jump could be a sell opportunity.
  • Non-Farm Payrolls: The first hint towards the NFP was positive: ISM manufacturing PMI beat expectations. ADP disappointed with only 208K jobs, slightly below predictions. Also the employment component of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ticked down, but still remained high and also the headline figure was promising. US jobless claims dropped to 297K as expected. All in all, expectations are probably consistent with the original projections of 225K.

In our latest podcast, we preview December’s big events, talk  about the importance of jobless claims, the crash in oil prices and GOFO going negative:

Download it directly here.