EUR/USD is showing some volatility on Thursday, trading just under the 1.36 line in Thursday’s European session. The markets are eagerly awaiting the ECB Rate Statement and follow-up press conference with ECB head Mario Draghi. Will the ECB make any moves? There are no other Eurozone releases on Thursday. Over in the US, it’s another busy day, highlighted by Unemployment Claims and Preliminary GDP.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
EUR/USD Technical
- EUR/USD showed strong upward movement late in the Asian session, braking past 1.36 and touching a high of 1.3640. The pair consolidated at 1.3622. In the European session, the pair has retracted and dropped back below the 1.36 line.
- Current range: 1.3570 to 1.3650.
Further levels in both directions: 
- Below: 1.3570, 1.3500, 1.3440, 1.34, 1.3320, 1.3240, 1.3175, 1.31 and 1.3050.
- Above: 1.3650, 1.3710, 1.3800 and 1.3870.
- 1.3570 is providing support. The round number of 1.3500 is stronger.
- 1.3650 is the next line of resistance. This is followed by 1.3710.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 12:30 US Challenger Job Cuts.
- 12:45 ECB Minimum Bid Rate. Exp. 0.25%, Actual 0.25%.
- 13:30 ECB Press Conference.
- 13:30 US Preliminary GDP. Exp. 3.0%.
- 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 328K.
- 13:30 US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew Speaks.
- 13:30 US Preliminary GDP Price Index. Exp. 1.9%.
- 15:00 US Factory Orders. Exp. -0.9%.
- 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Exp. -141B.
*All times are GMT
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- All eyes on ECB statement: The euro is jumpy ahead of Thursday’s ECB policy statement, as the markets are unsure what to expect from the ECB. The markets were caught off guard when the ECB cut rates to 0.25% in November, but with the benchmark interest rate at a record low, analysts are not expecting another 0.25% reduction. However, the ECB could choose to cut rates by a token 10 or 15 basis points. ECB policymakers have raised the possibility of lowering the deposit rate of 0.0%, but this is unlikely since the ECB deposit rate has never been in negative territory before. Even if the ECB doesn’t make a move, Mario Draghi’s press conference has often been a market-mover, so it could be an eventful day for EUR/USD. Draghi is expected to maintain a dovish stance with an emphasis on the ECB’s easing bias.
- ADP Non-Farm Payrolls soars: US employment numbers continue to improve. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change jumped to 215 thousand, its sharpest gain since December 2012. This was a huge increase from the October release of 130 thousand and easily surpassed the estimate of 172 thousand. If Thursday’s Unemployment Claims has another strong reading, the dollar could make some gains.
- US housing numbers improves: New Home Sales surged in November, climbing to 444 thousand, up from 354 thousand the month before. This was well above the estimate of 432 thousand, and points to solid growth in the US housing sector.
- Spanish Services PMI Jumps: Spanish Services PMI looked sharp, as the index climbed to 51.5 points, up from 49.6 the month before. This was the PMI’s highest level in over six years. Italian Services PMI took the opposite route, dropping to 47.2 points, compared to 50.5 in the previous reading. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI remained steady, coming in at a healthy 51.6 points. PMI data is an important gauge of economic activity and can affect the movement of EUR/USD.
- Spanish Unemployment Change drops: For the first time in the month of November, Spanish unemployment claims dropped. The key indicator posted a decline of 2.5 thousand, surprising the markets, which had expected a gain of 49.3 thousand. This was the first drop since July. Traditionally, the summer months show a decline due to the influx of tourists, so the November release was a pleasant surprise. Now the big question is will the unemployment rate, which stands at a staggering 26%, will follow suit and improve.
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