EUR/USD Feb. 11 – Falling to Three Week Low

EUR/USD is falling towards a three week low as the dollar storms the board and worries about debt hurt the Euro. How will it end the week?  Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  Traded in narrow range between the 1.3570 and 1.3610 lines. Further drops followed in the European session.
• Current range – 1.3510 – 1.3570

• Further levels in both directions: Below    1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
• Above: 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.37, 1.3760, 1.3830, 1.3950, 1.4030, 1.4160 and 1.4230.
• The failure to conquer the critical 1.3760 level sent the pair down
• 1.3440 is important support below, and it’s getting closer. 1.3510 is a very minor line.

Euro/Dollar small recovery- click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

• 7:00 German Final CPI. Exp. -0.5%. Actual -0.4%.
• 7:00 German WPI. Exp. +0.9%. Actual +1.2%.
• 7:45 French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls. Exp. +0.2%. Actual +0.2%.
• 13:30 US Trade Balance. Exp. -40 billion.
• 14:55 US Consumer Sentiment. Exp. 74.8 points.
• 17:30 ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet talks.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• US weekly jobless claims were excellent – only 383K – this helped the dollar.
• A bailout for Portugal is getting closer as bond yields are rising and becoming unsustainable again.
• Opposition party in Ireland, Fine Gael,  wants a haircut for senior bondholders. Now they have a precedent of a default in Denmark to rely on. The current government left this issue for the next government.
• Egyptian crisis: The strikes in Egypt add fuel to the fire, and could topple the regime. Currently, ships still pass through the Suez canal, but aren’t taxed. A closure of the canal will aid the dollar. After Mubarak failed to leave and respond to the masses, today’s protest, called “Friday of Martyrs” might be decisive. If violence erupts, the dollar will strengthen
• Trichet hurt the Euro last week. This time he isn’t expected to say anything important, but any statement about inflation will rock the Euro.

Currensee Community: 61% are long , 39% are short. These are 1334 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment. 

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