EUR/USD Feb. 21 – Pausing at Resistance

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EUR/USD cannot break higher at the wake of the new week. Middle East turmoil and balances inflation fighting boosts. Will it conquer resistance? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  Euro/Dollar climbed above 1.37, but this was short lived.
  • Current range – 1.3610 – 1.37.

EUR USD Chart February 21

  • Further levels in both directions: Below 1.3610, 1.3570, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
  • Above:  1.37, 1.3760, 1.3830, 1.3950, 1.4030, 1.4160 and 1.4230.
  • 1.3440 is important support below – just proved itself in recent days.
  • The failure to conquer the critical 1.3760 is a bearish sign

Euro/Dollar below resistance – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

  • 8:00 French Flash Services PMI. Exp. 58 points. Actual – 60.8 points – significant surprise.
  • 8:00 French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 55 points. Actual 55.3 points.
  • 8:30 German Flash Services PMI. Exp. 69.3 points.
  • 8:30 German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 60.3 points.
  • 9:00 All-European Flash Services PMI. Exp. 56 points.
  • 9:00 All-European Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 57.3 points.
  • 9:00 German Ifo Business Climate. Exp. 110.3 points.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • The hawkish comment by ECB member Bini Smaghi on Friday about raising the rates sent the Euro skyrocketing.
  • China raised the Reserve Ratio Rate. This is not the first time, but the 0.50% scale is rather large. This temporary hurt the Euro.
  • Unrest in the Middle East currently has little impact on currencies, although the situation in Libya is serious – it is in a state of turmoil – a civil war. Libya is an exporter of oil.
  • Irish debt is a big burden: There are growing talks of a default in Ireland. Opposition party in Ireland, Fine Gael,  wants a haircut for senior bondholders. Now they have a precedent of a default in Denmark to rely on. The current government left this issue for the next government.
  • A bailout for Portugal is getting closer as bond yields are rising and becoming unsustainable again.

Currensee Community: 62% are long , 38% are short. These are 1490 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment. 

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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